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S&P future vs index

Futures & Options - www.trade2win.com
Hi guys,

I have a question regarding the S&P future. Since 2008 this future is in backwardation because the interest rate is near 0.. so you'd expect the s&p future outperform the index by 50 bps each quarter (2% dividend yield on average). However, in some instances the future only outperformed by 30 bps. How can that be? What am i missing? (referring to march 2014 fut, jung 2010 and june 2011.

Thanks in advance!


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