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Is Technical Analysis really working or it's just an illusion?

Trading Discussion @ Forex Factory -
I haven't traded yet, but I'm getting discouraged by what TA is in its nature - predicting the future by looking at the past... I also read many criticisms for the TA which make complete sense to me and it has not yet been proven from empirical data that TA actually works, not more than randomness.

On the other hand I'm thinking that it may not be that bad, for example if I trade the news. Say an American dealer buys huge quantity Japanese cars and pays in USD, after it's converted to YEN, this will make the YEN jump. This is fundamental analysis, but with the help of TA, I'll know where to close the position(perhaps).

Does anybody know if there is a chance to know (judging from the past) for what period of time certain events affect the currencies. Say in the above given example, approximately how long will the YEN be moving up, 20 min, 1 hour? And generally when trading the news, is there a prediction for how long will a given event influence a given currency in a particular direction?

What are you thoughts on TA and its effectivness, how exactly can we use it in our favour?
Date: Oct 22, 2013   

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