Job Numbers Disappoint but...
Job Numbers Disappoint but?
Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 3:45 AM EST, here?s what we see:
US Dollar: Jun. USD is Up at 96.710.
Energies: Jun Crude is Up at 47.90.
Financials: The Sept 30 year bond is Down 3 ticks and trading at 154.24.
Indices: The June S&P 500 emini ES contract is 11 ticks Lower and trading at 2435.00.
Gold: The Aug gold contract is trading Up at 1283.90. Gold is 37 ticks Higher than its close.
This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Up+ and crude is Up+ which is not normal and the 30 year bond is trading Lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The indices are Down and Crude is trading Up which is correlated. Gold is trading Up which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Up+. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don?t have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
At this hour all of Asia is trading mainly Lower. As of this writing all of Europe is trading Lower with the exception of the German Dax which is trading Higher.
Possible Challenges To Traders Today
? Revised Nonfarm Productivity is out at 8:30 AM. This is not major.
? Revised Unit Labor Costs is out at 8:30 AM. This is not major.
? Final Services PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST. This is major.
? ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
? Factory Orders m/m are out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
? Labor Market Conditions Index are out at 10 AM. This is major.
We?ve elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract. The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it?s liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.
On Friday the ZB made it?s move at around 9 AM EST after the 8:30 AM economic news was released. The ZB hit a low at around that time and the YM hit a high. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 9 AM and the YM was moving lower at the same time. Look at the charts below and you?ll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a low at around 9 AM and the YM hit a high. These charts represent the newest version of Trend Following Trades and I?ve changed the timeframe to a 30 minute chart to display better. This represented a long opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about 30 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25. We added a Donchian Channel to the charts to show the signals more clearly. Please note that the front month for the ZB contract is now September, 2017.
Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades built on a NinjaTrader platform Click on an image to enlarge it.
ZB ? Sept, 2017 ? 6/2/17
YM- June, 2017 ? 6/2/17
On Friday we gave the markets a neutral bias as it was Jobs Friday and we always maintain a neutral bias on that day. The Dow jumped 62 points and the other indices gained ground as well. Today we aren?t dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the downside.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
So as it turns out the US economy created 138,000 net new jobs last month however the expectation was for 181,000. One might think that the markets would react negatively to such news however this wasn?t the case on Friday. The Dow closed 62 points higher and at one point in the session was about 135 points higher. The other indices closed higher as well. Now you might be asked ?what gives and how could this be?? Our train of thought is the markets greeted this news positively because this reduces the chance of an interest rate hike later this month by the Federal Reserve. The one reason that they?ve been hanging their hat on raising rates has been the job numbers. Now that those numbers are starting to degrade it may give the Fed room to pause. From our perspective they should pause anyway as the best way to torpedo an economic recovery is to hike rates. It will effect consumer spending and not in a positive manner. Whether they do this or not only time will tell?.
On another note, our thoughts and prayers go out to the people of London who suffered another terrorist attack on Saturday. This is the second in less than a month.
Just so you understand, Market Correlation is Market Direction. It attempts to determine the market direction for that day and it does so by using a unique set of tools. In fact TradersLog published an article on this subject that can be viewed at:
Many of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation. Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I?m proud of the fact that they did as I?m Author of that article. I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled ?How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation? and can be viewed at:
View article on Futures Mag
As a follow up to the first article on Market Correlation, I?ve produced a second segment on this subject matter and Futures Magazine has elected to publish it. It can be viewed at: View article on Futures Mag
Many subscribers have asked what is the best time of day to trade? A recent article published by Futures Magazine may shed some light on the subject:
As readers are probably aware I don?t trade equities. While we?re on this discussion, let?s define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter?s earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company?s shares. This is one of the reasons I don?t trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don?t have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc. Anytime the market isn?t correlated it?s giving you a clue that something isn?t right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the downside. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We?ll have to monitor and see.
As I write this the crude markets are Higher and the futures are trading Lower. This is normal. Crude and the markets are now reverse correlated such that when the markets are rising, crude drops and vice-versa. On Friday July Crude dropped to a low of $47.03 a barrel. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $46.65 a barrel and resistance at $48.92. This could change. We?ll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump. Please note that the front month for crude is now July. Last December and after two years OPEC finally decided to cut production but the price crude is still tame (as of this writing). What they haven?t figured out yet is that the more countries like Canada and the US produce their own crude (by whatever means) the more crude prices will fall. The move by OPEC to cut production in an attempt to pump up prices is liken to ?too little, too late? as the world doesn?t need their oil as much as they used to. Power equipment that used to need oil (Grass Trimmers, Lawn Mowers, Autos) now run on battery power and Canada and the United States are producing more of their own crude. As an update to this the non-OPEC countries have come to an agreement to unilaterally cut production across the board and this has served to temporarily raise crude prices. We?ll have to see if and how long this lasts?
If trading crude today consider doing so after 10 AM EST when the markets gives us better direction.
It seems that every week the US is facing a new disaster. a few weeks ago it was North Korea, four weeks ago it was the Healthcare bill that barely passed the Republican controlled House of Representatives and three weeks ago it was Trump firing FBI Director James Comey. We said immediately after the election that the danger with this President is he will run this country like a game show (the Apprentice) and anyone who doesn?t ?cut it? will be fired. Now on the outside that may seem positive; after all isn?t it high time that the government runs like a business? The problem here is this president (because he has no political background) makes the wrong decisions at the wrong time. Firing the man who?s investigating your campaign will only lead people to believe (besides being an obstruction to justice) that this is a coverup and what is he trying to hide? And then the very next day announcing in an interview with Lester Holt that it was your idea all along isn?t helping your cause. This President believes he is above the law and answers to no one. He believes he can do what he want with no consequences and of course if it doesn?t work according to plan he?ll just blame the Democrats. The market is starting to reflect this as the ?Trump Trade? is no longer in vogue. What disaster awaits us this week? Only time will tell?
As an update to this former FBI Director James Comey will testify before a Congressional Committee this upcoming Thursday to discuss what has actually transpired and to provide his assessment on the Russian issue relative to the 2016 election. Will Trump attempt to invoke executive privilege to stop Comey from testifying? Only time will tell?
TradersLog has just published an article entitled ?So You Think You Can Trust Your Elected Officials?? That article can be viewed at:
Crude Oil Is Trading Higher
Crude oil is trading Higher and the markets are Lower. This is normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 9 AM EST, 11 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today?s market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn?t have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I?m not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading. Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it?s monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a daily newsletter that is dedicated to your trading success. We teach and discuss market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com. Interested in Market Correlation? Want to learn more? Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open. As a subscriber, you?ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.